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Mutation breeding


BetaWolf

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Can someone check if I made any mistakes? Below I've posted my math on how many female dinosaurs you would need to get 1 wanted mutation on average each day.

Things to be considered when checking my math:

  • Needed female are calculated per mating cycle
  • We do not take account of the time it takes to replace the male breeder with the new male (maturation time)
  • What we see as "desired" in this situation: specific gender, 1 specific stat, strongest base stat inherited from parents, 1 mutation in a specific stat

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Now here's the reason why I want someone or multiple people to check if I didn't make mistakes, I heard people say they got desirable offspring (creature with 7 levelable stats)  on a daily basis with only 100 females (while both parents were able to give a mutation), that would result in needing ~181 females once the father reached 20 total mutations on his counter. That's a lot less than the 620 (rounded) I got from my math. 

 

Please don't math-shame me. 😶

 

Sources:

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As someone who did blood crystal wyverns, anky hp, and tropical crystal wyverns up 20 mutations from 0 - I can tell you how many work in practice.

 

200 breeders would almost guarantee the correct mutation each mating - gender not accounted for.  From 1 to 20, I could count on 1 hand how many times I had to breed a second time to get a mutation that I wanted.

 

The math for a 7 stat animal I think is something like:  (*chance of mutation* 0.0731)(*Chance its the higher stat between parents* 0.55)(*Chance its the stat you want to mutate* 1/7 )(*Chance it is a male baby 0.5) = Y .   I can't think of what else to apply, what did I miss?

 

450 breeders should almost guarantee you get a male baby each round w/ the mutation you want. I would say going any larger and you will not like the amount of time you will spend going through eggs or hatched babies.   I did it before incubators, it was super easy to spot the mutations because I used all matching stat breeders so any mutation stood out.  WIth incubators , I could have saved a ton of time on hatching trash dinos, but conversely the time invested using them would definitely be considerable to use for sorting.

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10 minutes ago, GrumpyBear said:

The math for a 7 stat animal I think is something like:  (*chance of mutation* 0.0731)(*Chance its the higher stat between parents* 0.55)(*Chance its the stat you want to mutate* 1/7 )(*Chance it is a male baby 0.5) = Y .   I can't think of what else to apply, what did I miss?

I agree with that formula. I had one extra 0.5 for the chance of mutation when male breeder has +20 mutations, but I changed that now. If you check the first post again in a few minutes, it'll be adjusted.

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With problems of probability and combinatorics.  The key words to watch for are 'and' and 'or' .   'And' will mean multiplication and 'or' will mean addition.

 

SO if we look at the chance of getting 1 mutation as 0.075, then the chances of getting 3 mutations is an 'and' sort of problem (we get 1 mutation and a 2nd mutation and then we get a 3rd mutation all at once) so it comes out:

0.075 x 0.075 x 0.075 = 0.00042188

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also, there is a way to ignore the 20/20 limit imposed.   Its a separate project of breeding done simultaneously mating brother/sister groups merging stat counts together repeatedly generation after generation until you create a mutation count too large to store, this causes the mutation counter to reset to a negative #. Since a negative # is less than 0, it's also less than 20, hence - unlocked mutation potential.

This requires tons of patience, too much time on your hands, a bit of obsessive compulsive disorder, and no real life to speak of.

 

 

That's how breeders get around the too many dinos to breed with problem after hitting 20/20.

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13 minutes ago, GrumpyBear said:

also, there is a way to ignore the 20/20 limit imposed.   Its a separate project of breeding done simultaneously mating brother/sister groups merging stat counts together repeatedly generation after generation until you create a mutation count too large to store, this causes the mutation counter to reset to a negative #. Since a negative # is less than 0, it's also less than 20, hence - unlocked mutation potential.

This requires tons of patience, too much time on your hands, a bit of obsessive compulsive disorder, and no real life to speak of.

 

 

That's how breeders get around the too many dinos to breed with problem after hitting 20/20.

Will that take less time than breeding a max-level dino?

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15 minutes ago, BetaWolf said:

Will that take less time than breeding a max-level dino?

Its a function of your breeding rates and the dino you are doing it with.  If it's a 2 day raise dino, its 41 or 42 generations to double up until you break free if you start from 1+1.  After that, if you bred some of the #s together while you climb up to 2billion, you can then breed the mixed values to the -2billion and bring it to a managable negative number that you don't have to deal with it flipping + and - every other generation.   You run into that problem when merging stats back together after your continued mutating.

 

Using multiple females to start with is also necessary if you don't want to have long pauses waiting for mff pairs to continue with.  Remember you need at least 1 male and 2 females each round to get a male and a female baby.  Since you aren't guaranteed gender, you will want to have 6-8 females running at a time if you can.  This # will naturally dwindle over time and you will be slowed down replenishing the harem .

To get an idea on time, if you had a perfect run and could continue with zero delays, a 2 day raise would be like 84 days to reach negative #s - not counting real life, hatching, lack of breeding partners along the way, sleep....   

Depends on the map you use, you can shave time off w/ genesis 2.  There's a reason Pagans hit 253 shadowmanes on pve official in just a few months.  It wasn't just because of the genesis 2 map, but that helped alot.

 

If you wanted to do this with Gigas, at a 10 day raise.... that's 420 days at the very least. The nice thing about them is , if you run short on females, you can clone them way faster than raising.  This can help reduce extra time costs put in, but you can see - its an insane idea to say to oneself, 'that's what I want to do w/ my next 2 years of my life.'

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13 minutes ago, GrumpyBear said:

Its a function of your breeding rates and the dino you are doing it with.  If it's a 2 day raise dino, its 41 or 42 generations to double up until you break free if you start from 1+1.  After that, if you bred some of the #s together while you climb up to 2billion, you can then breed the mixed values to the -2billion and bring it to a managable negative number that you don't have to deal with it flipping + and - every other generation.   You run into that problem when merging stats back together after your continued mutating.

 

Using multiple females to start with is also necessary if you don't want to have long pauses waiting for mff pairs to continue with.  Remember you need at least 1 male and 2 females each round to get a male and a female baby.  Since you aren't guaranteed gender, you will want to have 6-8 females running at a time if you can.  This # will naturally dwindle over time and you will be slowed down replenishing the harem .

To get an idea on time, if you had a perfect run and could continue with zero delays, a 2 day raise would be like 84 days - not counting real life, hatching, lack of breeding partners along the way, sleep....   

Depends on the map you use, you can shave time off w/ genesis 2.  There's a reason Pagans hit 253 shadowmanes on pve official in just a few months.  It wasn't just because of the genesis 2 map, but that helped alot.

18 hours 30 minutes (for the dino I want to breed) total maturation time (we have 10x in our cluster and an S+ Nanny ~ so breeding isn't much work), the only work is killing the bad eggs.

 

What's special about Genesis 2?

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19 minutes ago, BetaWolf said:

18 hours 30 minutes (for the dino I want to breed) total maturation time (we have 10x in our cluster and an S+ Nanny ~ so breeding isn't much work), the only work is killing the bad eggs.

 

What's special about Genesis 2?

doing missions gives boosts that are server wide.  You can shorten breading intervals, raise babies faster....

https://ark.fandom.com/wiki/Missions_(Genesis:_Part_2)

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14 hours ago, BetaWolf said:

Should not this be applied to your total then? For example, if you want to know the probability of getting at least 1 mutation into any of the strongest stats, it is effectively 3 rolls of 1.375%, not 55% of 3 rolls of 2.5%, etc.

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At this point, very few people do this intensive breeding.  Most species on official servers have already been min/maxed.   

The new species end up having a few tribes breeding for being the first to top min/max status and already have a battle plan in place.   

Everyone else is just waiting to trade for the high stats coming after transfers open up.

 

I would say the numbers you list for females needed for a guaranteed male baby every time seem solid on the less than 20 mut counts. 

But on the >20 , instinctively I wanna say that the # should be slightly higher than double the <20 group.

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3 hours ago, GrumpyBear said:

At this point, very few people do this intensive breeding.  Most species on official servers have already been min/maxed.   

The new species end up having a few tribes breeding for being the first to top min/max status and already have a battle plan in place.   

Everyone else is just waiting to trade for the high stats coming after transfers open up.

 

I would say the numbers you list for females needed for a guaranteed male baby every time seem solid on the less than 20 mut counts. 

But on the >20 , instinctively I wanna say that the # should be slightly higher than double the <20 group.

Would there be tribes that would use multiple servers to get the needed amount of females (and transfer their male breeder to mate)?

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8 minutes ago, BetaWolf said:

Would there be tribes that would use multiple servers to get the needed amount of females (and transfer their male breeder to mate)?

Like @GrumpyBear said, at this point in the game there's really no reason to start hardcore breeding. It's already been done long before and at a level you won't match before Ark 2 rolls around. 

Best to just trade sundries to the breeders for dinos.

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