statistics Data: How to tell if a stat is statistically good.

[eqliser]

Data: How to tell if a stat is statistically good.

EDIT: There are now multiple statistical data sets in this post, please check whether the data is for 180 max wild tamed to 269, official rates of 150 max wild tamed to 224. or for pre-tame chances for 150 wild or 180 wild.

I have looked around and have not seen much information about how to tell if a stat is good based off statistical data. I decided to investigate it myself.

Now, before I present my findings I am assuming you know how to do the following: Tame a Dino, and Enter Its Stats Into a Level Calculator. This means you know how many Level Points are distributed into each stat. Most creatures have 7 stats to distribute into (this includes wasted speed distributions).

That being said, I originally hypothesized that stats form a bell curve around the average distribution of the tamed level points. I made a computer program to randomly roll stats for 1 million creatures and tally the 7 million stat rolls to see how often they appear. 

To explain this in detail: My server has a max wild level of 180 that will increase to 269 when tamed assuming 99% taming effectiveness.

269/7 = 38.4 average levels in each stat

Now, assuming you want the best stats possible, I suggest taming all high level dinos regardless of pre-tame stats, but if kibble is scarce, I suggest still taming any high levels because you can make more kibble with effort, but you can't make high level dinos appear.

Now, onto statistical data to help you decide if you got a good or rare stat roll. Once the program tallied all the stats of the 1 million, level 269 tames, these stats were converted into percents. These percents are as follows and tell how rare it is to get that roll or higher(PERCENTS OVERLAP AND ARE FOR 180 MAX WILD DINO KIBBLE TAMED TO 269):

52 or higher = 1.37%

51 or higher = 2.06%

50 or higher = 3.00%

49 or higher = 4.30%

48 or higher = 6.03%

47 or higher = 8.25%

46 or higher = 11.07%

45 or higher = 14.55%

44 or higher = 18.72%

43 or higher = 23.60%

42 or higher = 29.13%

41 or higher = 35.25%

40 or higher = 41.82%

39 or higher = 48.68%

38 = average for level 269

37 or lower is not something you want to stop at.

 

You can use this info to determine if you want to continue looking for better stat rolls or start breeding. Note: Anything higher than 52 only appeared 0-3 times out of the 7 million stats rolled and anything higher than 60 wasn't even seen.  That being said, aim for 48-50 on after tame stats if your servers max wild dino level is 180 because within a few mutations you're at 54-56. That's a jump from 1/20 or 1/33 chance (rare) to a stat that is 1/171 or 1/443 chance (Not impossible, but easier to breed).

Thank you for your time. If you have questions, want data for a different max wild dino level, or would like a different format for the data, feel free to leave a comment.

Edit: All statistical data was run multiple times to make sure the sample number (1 million dinos, 7 million stats) was large enough to produce consistent data and it was consistent.

NOTE: I saw it suggested somewhere that there is a limit on how many points can be distributed into a stat when a dino is tamed. There is no way to prove this exists or what the cap is unless you go into Ark's source code. I will say that statistical improbability puts a sort of soft cap on how high you can get a stat to be without mutations.

EDIT: The following is statistical data is about OFFICIAL SERVER RATES. That is a max wild dino level of 150 which can be kibble tamed to 224. Hopefully, this information is useful to the brave souls who play official. 

The average value for a 224 dino is 224/7 = 32. The chances for different stats on official dinosaurs tamed to 224 are as follows:

46 or higher = 0.67%

45 or higher = 1.08%

44 or higher = 1.69%

43 or higher = 2.57%

42 or higher = 3.83%

41 or higher = 5.57%

40 or higher = 7.90%

39 or higher = 10.92%

38 or higher = 14.72%

37 or higher = 19.34%

36 or higher = 24.80%

35 or higher = 31.04%

34 or higher = 37.93%

33 or higher = 45.30%

32  = average for level 224

31 or lower is not something you want to stop at.

Again, shoot for as high of stats as you want, but 40-42 is a good place to stop taming for official servers and start breeding to get better stats.

EDIT: Pre-Tame data for those whom it may concern.

Sometimes kibble is scarce and people look at pre-tame stats to see if they want to tame an animal. That means knocking out the animal, putting its current stats into a calculator to get the point distribution. They then decide whether or not to tame it based on how 'good' the stats are, but how high is 'good'.

For official rates, max dino level is 150. This means the average stat is 150/7 = 21.4. The following data is for UNTAMED level 150 dinos:

33 or higher = 0.70%

32 or higher = 1.23%

31 or higher = 2.07%

30 or higher = 3.39%

29 or higher = 5.37%

28 or higher = 8.18%

27 or higher = 12.01%

26 or higher = 17.02%

25 or higher = 23.27%

24 or higher = 30.70%

23 or higher = 39.15%

22 or higher = 48.25%

21  = average for 150 wild dino stat

20 or lower is not something you want to tame if kibble is scarce.

 

 

For unofficial rates with a max dino level of 180. The average stat is 180/7 = 25.7. The following data is for UNTAMED level 180 dinos:

38 or higher = 0.82%

37 or higher = 1.37%

36 or higher = 2.21%

35 or higher = 3.46%

34 or higher = 5.26%

33 or higher = 7.76%

32 or higher = 11.10%

31 or higher = 15.39%

30 or higher = 20.73%

29 or higher = 27.09%

28 or higher = 34.38%

27 or higher = 42.39%

26 = average for 180 wild dino stat

25 or lower is not something you want to tame if kibble is scarce.

 

Hopefully, this pre-tame information is useful to you. Happy hunting!

[Ariartus]

Good to know, but shouldn't you work this out on level 224? the max wild level tame on official? Not the max level a dino can be after you have added levels yourself from levelling up.

[eqliser]

18 minutes ago, Ariartus said:

Good to know, but shouldn't you work this out on level 224? the max wild level tame on official? Not the max level a dino can be after you have added levels yourself from levelling up.

These values are from an unofficial server where wild dinos can spawn up to 180 and be tamed to 269. No levels are considered places after tame. I can go ahead and add data for official 150 wild tamed to 224 if you think two sets of data won't confuse people.

[mattj]

I think the two sets of data won’t confuse people. Just label them. Thanks for the work.

[eqliser]

Just now, mattj said:

I think the two sets of data won’t confuse people. Just label them. Thanks for the work.

I got you fam.

[Ariartus]

On 6/4/2019 at 7:50 AM, eqliser said:

These values are from an unofficial server where wild dinos can spawn up to 180 and be tamed to 269. No levels are considered places after tame. I can go ahead and add data for official 150 wild tamed to 224 if you think two sets of data won't confuse people.

Ah  that makes so much more sense now, and yes please a data set for official would be amazing thanks so much 

[Loki15]

Looks good, thank you very much!

[Avengel]

Kindo necro but this had been really useful, I'm curious if you can do the data for max level 210 wild? I had found a deinonoychus egg with 53 points, curious how rare that really is