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Is Ark dying ?


Kylir10

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26 minutes ago, LouSpowells said:

 

Anyone can cherry pick data to represent whatever biased narrative they choose, and it works even better if they dismiss all relevant variables like you're doing...but that's why professional analysts don't base their conclusions solely on a 3 month period without considering any outside variables.

You are looking for evidence to support your opinion while purposely avoiding taking into consideration large collection of data, variables and trends available to you. Unfortunately for your narrative, that's not how analysis works. (As an aside, while your "last 3 months" reference is potent for confirmation bias, the short-sighted point would have been far better executed if you said "Past 5.5" months. In the past 3 months the game has lost ~7.5k players, but if you include the previous month *gasp* that number is 17.5k players. OMG!!! That's a far better misrepresentation of the data than you provided, don't you think?)

Someone who studies, analyzes, and translates data for a living would approach it much differently. Someone like that would probably start by looking at pre-Aberration (November 2017) numbers of roughly 34k average active players on Steam. Then they'd probably note that the release of Aberration saw an increase in average players from 34k average players to a post-release peak 49k average two months later. That would be an increase of 15k players making it the second highest influx of active players in the history of the game, along with being the second highest average Ark has ever seen. In the 6 months since the release, trends indicate the novelty of the new DLC wore off, and Ark average daily players have reached the pre-Aberration release numbers of ~34k...which going through trends over the years can be considered the core of the Ark player base. (Non-fairweather players)

This is when the outside variables come into play. As Lucian stated, Conan Exiles was released at the beginning of this month. It's been a long anticipated and self-described Ark competitor that has drawn the interest of many Ark players during its early access development process...and if you weren't expecting Ark numbers to drop when Conan Exiles was released then you have business providing an analysis anyway. 

Point being, as of now there isn't nearly enough evidence suggesting that the game is dying...digest on that a bit.

 

I’ve already stated we don’t have a full suite of data to analyze and understand trends. If you’re aware of other data feeds we can look at other than the continued down trend of the steam population, by all means share those and we can review and discuss them together. As it stands, my assessment of the limited data is accurate. The continued downtrend of users hasn’t occurred within the steam player base. Understand this is a singular line of data, not all inclusive, but may or may not lend to the overall trend. We’d need to see more information to make a fully intelligent assessment. 

With that said, I’ve noticed a huge decline in the player base on ragnarok. Island as well. And aberration has been at low populations for 2+ months. Therefore my hypothesis is that ark will continue to steadily decline. If you have access to data that counters this, please share, as what you’ve provided has merely appeased my appetite without properly bedding it down. 

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fixing stuff in the game would be nice but takes a lot of time and this game has come ages since beta. I played a long time ago and returning to enjoy the game again a lot. A lot of good changes. Might take some while to fix the rest. But a game like this will never be perfect, just to much going on. As far as toxic or cheaters, happens in every single game only reason it is bigger deal here is the hardcore nature of the game. After every ban will just be another copy of the game bought to cheat again.

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12 hours ago, TracerBee said:

Yes, ARK is dying.

Look at the facts, when i first started playing this game on 2015, used to have over 100k players easy everyday, was top 3 games on steam for over a year and now it's barely hitting 50k players on PC.

Do you expect most games to keep the same level of playerbase over 3 years?

Do you people really expect a game to keep growing in player base year after year when it gets older and new games keep getting released?

You all act as if this drop in players is unique to ARK, it is not, it is natural for any game that has been in existence for 3 years or more.

8 hours ago, Kuwegg said:

So losing players overtime is not dying?

No, losing players over time is not dying. As I said above, it is a natural course for ANY game over 3 years since release for players to stop playing and move on to other games, or they stop playing games altogether, or whatever reason they stop. The fact you only see "dying" because numbers drop clearly goes to show you have no idea about statistics or the gaming industry at all. Tell me what games keep increasing in playerbase years after it is released. There may be one or two games that may do that, but in general ALL games will see declines in playerbase after 3 years plus.

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47 minutes ago, GP said:

Do you expect most games to keep the same level of playerbase over 3 years?

Do you people really expect a game to keep growing in player base year after year when it gets older and new games keep getting released?

You all act as if this drop in players is unique to ARK, it is not, it is natural for any game that has been in existence for 3 years or more.

No, losing players over time is not dying. As I said above, it is a natural course for ANY game over 3 years since release for players to stop playing and move on to other games, or they stop playing games altogether, or whatever reason they stop. The fact you only see "dying" because numbers drop clearly goes to show you have no idea about statistics or the gaming industry at all. Tell me what games keep increasing in playerbase years after it is released. There may be one or two games that may do that, but in general ALL games will see declines in playerbase after 3 years plus.

 

http://steamcharts.com/app/346110

 

These do not lie and its an undeniable fact that Ark its self is not dead and this up and down wave has happened through out the history of the game so people who say it is dead as a whole are wrong. This does not mean that aspects of the game is not dead. PvP is a prime example of an aspect in Ark that is dead.

 

If the developers do not acknowledge this then it is a problem. You could argue private servers have plenty of PvP but the company is promoting mods and their official servers not private servers. If they want people to play on private servers maybe reduce the amount of official servers they have to concentrate players in a smaller area so people fight more often.

 

Things can be done to fix this while other things like ddos and what not are out of the developers hands. So all in all is the game as a whole dying? No it is not but is aspects of the game dying out? Yes it is.

 

The problem is at this point is us the community. We will be inconvenienced by the changes that would need to happen to make PvP great again that most would quit anyways so its a lose lose situation for both the community and developers.

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Does anyone have forum statistics on posts per day?  Is there a correlation in the last few months of fewer visitors/people joining/posting?  

It seems the social media posts on FB and Twitter have far fewer users posting on them. 

What other data would indicate this, as GP puts it, “natural progression to less players”?

I think the 3 year excuse is convenient. But I’ve never played a game solely for this long. So I’m not sure the natural decline would apply (I assume many others would say the same thing). 

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ark is dying? no! you're dying! eat some food and get some water!

:3

but yea I agree the player base on official servers are winding down, though can't say the same for unofficial

game has too many time consuming mechs.

remember minecraft? it was at first thought ark is going to be like minecraft, but a little bump on realism.

but soon we all realised there's build limit, tame limit, spawn limit etc. limits limits everywhere but nooooo NOT SO on minecraft! you can technically go on forever and ever and even build a tiny computer in there.

but even at that people get tired.if people can get tired of minecraft, they surely will get tired of ark. 

 

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10 hours ago, LouSpowells said:

...and if you weren't expecting Ark numbers to drop when Conan Exiles was released then you have business providing an analysis anyway. 

no business?

 

you kids know it's basically summer now, right? most people have crawled out of their winter dungeons and are outside enjoying the sun. so, would i farm metal and feed my dinos like i've done for the past months, in what is a 3yo game, or go outside and spot all them short skirts ladies are wearing? i don't know. i really don't.

ffs, no sane game company should release on this sacred time 

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22 hours ago, SlipperySquid said:

I think foot soldiers play a crucial role in PvP however i do not think in a dino game they should be the main show. I think what you are saying here showcases how far the game has became being a Dinosaur survival game.

I feel currently both Dinos and foot soldiers do have a role to play in tribal war. Someone on foot can set up traps to lure in X or Y dino to catch them in traps so that your dinos can pounce and so on. Maybe even set up some C4 traps and other things along those lines.

 

If you came to a server on foot do you feel like you could do the same things with the new turrets? Or do you feel like there is no room in the current game/meta for smaller tribes to have that experience anymore? I personally do not feel there is room for the little guy anymore however from reading your stories maybe their is still that niche.

The new turrets have definitely made things harder. Before against the normal turrets you had a decent chance on foot to get past them if you knew what you were doing using various tricks. The new turrets though react a lot faster and are more deadlier. The game has sort of drifted into this meta where the only way to get into a lot of bases is to bring a dino and sit there tank which I find is really dull and not fun for anyone. At least before you had a few more options, there was more strategies you could employ to get in now its sort of been reduced to just one.

In terms of small tribes they are actually becoming rarer and rarer on servers, it used to be that you would join a 70/70 server and there would be dozes of little tribes with less then 5 players on there. Now a days you join a server and if you are lucky it will have 20-30 players on it at max and they will be in one or two tribes and both allied.

With regards to guerrilla actions we only got away with what we did because we knew the mechanics of the game and were well co-ordinated and disciplined and probably the most important thing was motivation. We all knew each other, used voice coms and we weren't in a tribe doing stuff we didn't want to be doing. We all wanted to be there and we all had the same aims and knew what to do.

We always played on The Island server because we knew that map backwards and it also offered us the best concealment of all the maps. The other maps lacked enough vegetation to properly hide and were also a lot larger so getting around on foot was slower. We would start with one of us joining a highly populated server with a special recon char which basically had all points in movement speed. He would scout it work out what bases were easy to raid to get our selves some easy weapons and gear. Then we'd go from there. We would build small 1x1 or 2x2 shacks spread around the map in the jungle with beds and boxes in it. Occasionally someone would find one but because we had multiple but it was never enough to really hinder us. That setup worked pretty well for us the only exception was when someone was using obvious ESP. 

On this one particular night it was early  in the morning at around 3 am. At that time we were the only players on the server except for 2 new players in a small tribe. Then this guy from the alpha tribe logged in. Now the day before one of our players had managed to kill some of their tames but this one player kept zoning in to him often in the middle of the jungle on his Wyvern everytime he went near their main base. Now our guy he'd been playing ARK from the start like the rest of us when cheaters were a lot more common. He'd played Cod, Battlefield you name it. He was a very skilled player and knew a cheater when he saw one. So he calls out on coms "This guy is using ESP for sure" and we all pretty much agreed it was highly likely given what he was telling us. As is often the case with cheaters, they will cheat in one game and in the next and sure enough when I checked out his steam profile it reflected this stating  "Multiple VAC bans on record". 

So the next day this same player logs in and then a minute later we get a kill message about one of our dodo's being killed by this player in one of our bases. He literally started flying around the map destroying every single 1x1 we had. Some of them weren't even a full 1x1, just a bed on a stone slab. All of them located in the jungle but he managed to find them. We were looking at the tribe log as it was happening and sometimes the time difference between blowing up one base and the next was under 2-3 minutes. It was quite obvious what was going on and so in that situation you can't really do much about it other then try your luck on another server which we did.

Do I think that a new player joining the game today has a realistic chance to survive in a new tribe with some level of independence on a server? Absolutely not. I wouldn't even bother. If they play however somewhat dirty like we did, using guerrilla actions, multiple tribes, multiple chars and knowing how to work diplomacy in your favour then they can still have some fun but its a lot of work and you are basically forfeiting a lot of the content. You will have never TEK Gear, or be able to afford to make most Master Craft/Ascendant items. You can still have a few bases tucked away somewhere.

We had a base on a fairly dead server mainly for farming and storing loot. It was in the middle of the map near this mountain with metal and crystal on the top. There is an area there where 3 drops regularly spawn, which we built next to. Our base was a fairly basic setup, a small size square box metal base,  with as many turrets as we could fit and then 1x anklo, 1x doed, 1x Quetz, 1x Beaver, 1x meat gather. The inside had all the essentials, chem bench, industrial forge and so on and then a wall of vaults. We ended up with around 40 vaults just full of stuff and what started off as a small base just grew and grew. 

Ironically the alpha on that server was part of a larger Chinese mega tribe who at one point looked like they would raid us. 20 of them showed up at our base on flyers one day and started shooting at us. With a bit of luck and a lot of bluff I managed to convince them with the help of Google Translate that we could help them guard the server against invaders. I gave their leader a whole stack of Ascendant Saddle BPs, all of them costing thousands of ingots to make which we had no use for. He really appreciated the gesture and from then on in we were set. We never had a problem again and once a week I'd drop by his base give him all the "excess" stuff we had no use for. They even gave us let us do boss fights and gave us a Tek transmitter which was extremely handy. Eventually we took a break from the game and merged our tribe with the Chinese. When they went in the base for the first time as I was showing them around they were quite stunned. The whole base was literally just vaults. Every square inch of space where you could fit one had a vault. Even the dinos we had were full of stuff. One of the Chinese hopped on a bear and tried to use it but it wouldn't move. It was full of gunpowder, he looked in the inventory and said something excitedly in Chinese to the other guy.  

So all in all I think this game still has potential for small tribes but I get the feeling its becoming harder and harder and you really have to work much harder and literally play with fire on a daily basis to succeed.

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The people that says ark is dying is the same that said conan was the end of ark or that dark and light was the end of ark, they went and played those games for a few days and cameback to daddy ark.

Is in the top 10 on steam charts http://steamcharts.com/top, above great games, you call that dying? A game like this will be very hard to see ending, Extinction DLC will be a game changer and the others coming after that  DLCs coming after it.

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15 hours ago, flamron said:

I’ve already stated we don’t have a full suite of data to analyze and understand trends. If you’re aware of other data feeds we can look at other than the continued down trend of the steam population, by all means share those and we can review and discuss them together. As it stands, my assessment of the limited data is accurate. The continued downtrend of users hasn’t occurred within the steam player base. Understand this is a singular line of data, not all inclusive, but may or may not lend to the overall trend. We’d need to see more information to make a fully intelligent assessment. 

With that said, I’ve noticed a huge decline in the player base on ragnarok. Island as well. And aberration has been at low populations for 2+ months. Therefore my hypothesis is that ark will continue to steadily decline. If you have access to data that counters this, please share, as what you’ve provided has merely appeased my appetite without properly bedding it down. 

I requested that you take time to digest the point I was making, not to regurgitate it and pretend you cooked it. 

Believe it or not, yes...I do know we need to see more information to make an intelligent assessment. That's why - in the post you responded to - I specifically told you that there isn't enough data to draw a conclusion.

What's truly amazing to me is the cognitive dissonance required to repeat my point as if it were yours, then immediately contradict the point by stating as fact that your original "assessment of the limited data is accurate." It seems I've already given you all the information you need to argue with and contradict yourself. Good luck with that.

 

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16 hours ago, GP said:

Do you expect most games to keep the same level of playerbase over 3 years?

Do you people really expect a game to keep growing in player base year after year when it gets older and new games keep getting released?

You all act as if this drop in players is unique to ARK, it is not, it is natural for any game that has been in existence for 3 years or more.

No, losing players over time is not dying. As I said above, it is a natural course for ANY game over 3 years since release for players to stop playing and move on to other games, or they stop playing games altogether, or whatever reason they stop. The fact you only see "dying" because numbers drop clearly goes to show you have no idea about statistics or the gaming industry at all. Tell me what games keep increasing in playerbase years after it is released. There may be one or two games that may do that, but in general ALL games will see declines in playerbase after 3 years plus.

Yeah... But... The game *OFFICIALLY LAUNCHED* only 9 months ago... And is doing worse than it's pre-launch stats for the same months the year earlier when it was still in development.

So it's nice that you can say "Do you expect a game to keep  growing in playerbase over 3 years". Well, yes. actually I do. When it was EARLY ACCESS it was only available on steam to a niche market. Usually when you do a global release to retail stores, other online retailers, etc. You generally see a larger influx of players. What we realistically saw was a large influx of returning players that didnt even top it's EA peaks, to see if anything had changed. And of course, let's be honest, the complete lack of servers on launch for the better part of the week, day 1 bugs, and the myriad list of issues that were(some still are) present, didn't keep them around long.

If the games PEAK was last february in 2017 with 100k, when it was Early Access, and couldnt even scratch its way past 85k POST global  release, yeah the game is realistically not doing well. 

And as far as your comment about "There may be one or two games that may do that" in regards to an increase or steady players after 3 years.

Well There is:

Pay Day 2 ( 6 years old) 
Rainbow Six Siege ( 3 years )
Warframe ( 5  years )
Dota 2 ( 6 Years )

And that's not even all of the steam games that have been around for years and still see steady or increases of players, there are also a large amount of non-steam games that continually pick up new players. So nice try there I guess?

 

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6 hours ago, LouSpowells said:

I requested that you take time to digest the point I was making, not to regurgitate it and pretend you cooked it. 

Believe it or not, yes...I do know we need to see more information to make an intelligent assessment. That's why - in the post you responded to - I specifically told you that there isn't enough data to draw a conclusion.

What's truly amazing to me is the cognitive dissonance required to repeat my point as if it were yours, then immediately contradict the point by stating as fact that your original "assessment of the limited data is accurate." It seems I've already given you all the information you need to argue with and contradict yourself. Good luck with that.

 

I’ll wait for the additional data you seem to have to confirm that ark isn’t in fact dying as you seem to suggest. I find it interesting that we cannot prove it is dying, but you’re comfortable stating that it isn’t dying. 

My perspective is that Ark is declining like it never has before (as supported by the steam chart and my personal experience). Yours is opposite. Both are perspectives. So stop pretending like you have the almighty knowledge to state opinion as fact. You, nor I, have the data needed to support either. I simply stated that the downturn in Steam numbers has not been seen. You’ve assumed quite a lot beyond that. 

You’ve offered no new information. Maybe your next post will have something substantial to back up your claims that Ark is clearly not dying. 

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6 hours ago, Caesium said:

I'm not sure if Ark is dieing or will die so long as cheaters are dealt with and fixes keep coming. I've played since 2015, a lot has changed, people go and new ones keep coming from what I can tell, there's a non ending flow of newbies, so I guess the question should be to the OP: is Ark dieing for you?

Majority of the players in ark official have their hands in some sort of cheating. They can choose not to acknowledge it but it does not mean it does not exist with in your group.

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On 5/22/2018 at 5:21 PM, ForzaProiettile said:

Well since you have finished PVE and naturally totalled bored why not try something new. The other side of the game PVP is quite exciting, every ARK player should at least experience it once otherwise they haven't played the full game.

I have tried pvp and I find it totally flawed. Cheating, off-line raiding, and mega tribes filling up servers so you can't even join to defend.

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Guest DJRone89
3 hours ago, SwishPapaSweets said:

Official will die off eventually however the unofficial side will keep ark alive especially modded PC. Hell I'm going to rebuild my pc just to play modded again 

I intend on building a PC too, but need to wait until I have the funds later this year.

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On 5/21/2018 at 8:06 AM, Kylir10 said:

So is ark dying or dead?

 

In my eyes its dying, Due to the toxic players and the long long long list of issues in the game. You have people that cant fight fair needing to DDOS or undermap just to name a few. And there not the only Issues that game itself is broken at the core really. the lag is amazing the fact we have dinos starving why they have max food in them losing dinos through the ground or in the ark itself.

 

Losing your level 113 character with so many imprinted dinos (sure they will give you the 100 levels back but all that work you just lose to ther bug in the game).

Can Wild Card fix some of the issues? we will have to wait and see as most was here from alpha and are still here. What about toxic players? the cheaters the dupers the undermapers?

Well wild card has started to work on them on PC but I fear its to little to late, even more so for us that its already happend to more than once. The game is just not fun we cant even go for a little raid no without someone crying to a megas tribe thats will just DDOS the crap out of the server and offline you no fair fights anymore.

 

Sure there will be a lot of people that still love the game and good for you Im happy some are still enjoying it, I have just lost another 6 members who just cant put up with the bugs glitches and cheaters in the game anymore. One dude lost 3 characters in the same day no word of a lie 3!!! Due to a server he went to do the tek cave on getting roledback by a group claming to be SC. He farmed up a lot of mats to get into that fight and lost everything.

 

 I would love to hear other players point of views, good or bad.

Ark is definitelynot dying look at the numbers 

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On ‎5‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 4:43 PM, SlipperySquid said:

 

http://steamcharts.com/app/346110

 

These do not lie and its an undeniable fact that Ark its self is not dead and this up and down wave has happened through out the history of the game so people who say it is dead as a whole are wrong. This does not mean that aspects of the game is not dead. PvP is a prime example of an aspect in Ark that is dead.

 

If the developers do not acknowledge this then it is a problem. You could argue private servers have plenty of PvP but the company is promoting mods and their official servers not private servers. If they want people to play on private servers maybe reduce the amount of official servers they have to concentrate players in a smaller area so people fight more often.

 

Things can be done to fix this while other things like ddos and what not are out of the developers hands. So all in all is the game as a whole dying? No it is not but is aspects of the game dying out? Yes it is.

 

The problem is at this point is us the community. We will be inconvenienced by the changes that would need to happen to make PvP great again that most would quit anyways so its a lose lose situation for both the community and developers.

Excellent post. Its sad that PVP has sort of died out in this game, its true that there are still a lot that play it today but its no where near how it used to be. You are also correct that if the developers want to turn things around they need to make big and serious changes to the PVP side of the game in order to breath new life into it.

The biggest one and most important one is a significant reduction in the maximum tribe size. I would cap it at 10 player for a 70 slot server which is still pretty big when you think about it.

The other thing I would is introduce some form of PVP offline protection. Not full protection, it should still let players attack structures but give those structures a strong buff so that there is at least some incentive for players to fight other players when wait till they go offline. 

Lastly I would rework the way players can see who is online or even get rid of it all together. It would be nice if I could use my proper steam rather then "123". 

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On 5/22/2018 at 1:10 PM, DJRone89 said:

People looking for unofficials expecting them to match the official experience will have a bad time. People wanting to try the unofficial experience without the official perception tend to find what they are looking for much much easier.

I mentioned in a reply to GP that many people aren’t prepared to use all available channels to find servers either. There are multiple sources to choose from based on your platform. This site is one, then there are many subreddits, server advert sites, discord, Facebook groups, and for Xbox alone there are countless clubs/LFGs that are built into the XBL community browser on the console itself.

i dont agree that people should spend additional time trying to find unofficial servers when there is server browser withing game itself. i can imagine that there are unofficial servers with even better official experience than officials but majority of people cant find them so ...

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Guest DJRone89
24 minutes ago, OttoGrunf said:

i dont agree that people should spend additional time trying to find unofficial servers when there is server browser withing game itself. i can imagine that there are unofficial servers with even better official experience than officials but majority of people cant find them so ...

The server browser is simply there so you can search for the server by name or scrolling. What you are asking for is a complete overhaul of the UI without making any suggestions to what they should add and implement. But given that the community forums was created by the developers and has its own tribe/server recruitment sections for each platform, I seriously doubt such an overhaul will ever happen.

If people refuse to look no further than the server browser in this technological day and age of social media and it’s multiple channels than that’s on them and can only be excused as laziness.

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If it's the future of Ark we're talking about I'm pretty confident that I know what I'm talking about.

First let's define 'dying.' If by dying you mean that its player base at the moment its playerbase's overall time online is decreasing, then sure, Ark's dying, however it has been in the process of dying like five times by that definition. I play on PS4, singleplayer and have done so for over a year now. I have yet to get bored. What everybody needs to realize is that Ark is going to explode again once the Extinction DLC is released. No games last forever, however some have much longer lifespans than others, and Ark has already at least breached that 10%-15% of games in terms of how long the player base has stayed interested. Ark's future could either be very bright, or could be nonexistent. Here are the possibilities that I see.

Extinction DLC is released. Everybody is disappointed either by content, by the ending of the story, or both. People put down their controllers in boredom or in rebellion. (Unlikely scenario.)

Extinction DLC is released. People are thrilled. After a few months the hype dies down and people start looking forward to what SWC is going to do next. Here are the possibilities for that:

 

WildCard announces that they will continue to work on fixing Ark, and continuing to add more content, dinos, maps, items etc. along the way. They  release updates, whether they be content or bug related, once every two months or so, keeping the game fresh in players' minds. They continue to add more unique mechanics, they fix bugs, and they balance out their Multiplayer problems. They update the game indefinitely. The game's lifespan becomes indefinite, perhaps even growing to currently unimaginable sizes.

 

WildCard announces Ark 2. Fans of the game are split. Many are furious, while many are excited. Some who are furious will stop playing Ark at least for a little while, while others will continue playing since they still find the game fun, as mad as they are at the company that makes it. The angry fans will see it as another cash grab on WildCard's part (which it would be), but many others wouldn't care since they'd just be excited to see more Ark content, no matter what form it came in. No matter what, Ark 2 would not reach the amount of sales that WildCard would be expecting. Half at maximum. Those players that still played the original would keep doing so for a while. Hardcore players would stay the longest, I'd say 5 years at the most after Ark 2 is released, and by that point the playerbase of the original game would be so small that WildCard probably wouldn't bother even looking in the direction of the original game anymore, focusing instead of their potentially successful sequel. There are multiple requirements for this game to be truly successful: 1. It needs to have no more bugs than Ark 1 does right now. 2. It would also need to have just as many dinos, free maps and content as Ark 1 does, all at the same level of quality or better. 3. Ark 1 would need to be seen as a complete game. Mostly if not entirely bug-free. If this game is successful ( and I mean miraculously so) the franchise would live another five years.

 

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